Trump’s Tariffs: Is A Global Trade War In The Offing?

US President Donald Trump is preparing to reshape America’s trade policy with a renewed interest in imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico, China, and Canada. Trump has claimed that the proposed measures will address “unfair trade practices” and “protect American manufacturing”. Trump’s move could set the stage of a tariff war on a global scale with his move resulting strong and coordinated responses from all three countries.

The Trump administration has said, reportedly, that it has been reviewing data from trade flows and the new tariff regime will be aimed specifically at products it claims are subsidised or “dumped” on American consumers.

In February, after speaking with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump had said “I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement. This Agreement is until April 2nd.” However, in an interview with Fox 카지노 사이트 on March 9, Trump said that the “tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico planned for April 2 could go up".

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added that “one-month exemptions from tariffs are likely for more than just carmakers,” hinting at temporary relief measures designed to allow further discussion under the framework of the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA). It is, for now, unclear whether the administration is prepared to impose tariffs while simultaneously using diplomacy to manage the economic fallout of such a policy change.

Mexico’s Countermoves

The United States and Mexico have had a longstanding trade relationship, with Mexico being one of America’s key trading partners. Trump’s new tariffs have already been met a forceful response from the Mexican government and people.

Mexican officials have reiterated that USMCA is a commitment for free trade between the countries of the North American continent. Sheinbaum’s administration negotiated the one-month suspension with Trump for goods covered by the USMCA, but the Mexican president has also made it clear that any future tariffs will be met with swift retaliatory measures. Any further tariffs will also undermine Sheinbaum whose countrymen cheered and celebrated her on March 10, when instead of announcing retaliatory tariffs as she had planned, she came back with a one-month suspension. She credited her “cool head” for the deal.

Mexican trade ministers have reportedly been in emergency meetings to review the economic impact of Trump’s new tariff policy. According to Reuters, a spokesperson for the Mexican Ministry of Economy said, “We are carefully monitoring the situation and will take all necessary measures, including filing formal complaints through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), to ensure that our exports are not unfairly penalized.”

 Mexican officials say they will retaliate by levying counter-tariffs on American agricultural products and manufactured goods—a move that could hurt USA’s exporters as much as domestic industries.

 It is possible at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) will have to step in for dispute resolution between the two countries.

Canadian Response

Canada has already, reportedly, initiated a formal complaint with the WTO if Trump’s new tariff policy contravenes the USMCA. Historically, Canada has never been shy about challenging US tariffs in international trade forums. In 2017, during Trump’s first term, he had described the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as “the worst trade deal in history” and pushed for its renegotiation. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the very notion was “totally unacceptable” and described the tariffs as an “affront” to the longstanding partnership between the US and Canada.

 When the first Trump administration had imposed tariffs on Canada in 2018, the latter country retaliated with counter-tariffs on US goods worth 12.6 billion dollars, covering everything from steel, aluminium, to consumer products like ketchup and lawnmowers. Tension between the two countries escalated in June the same year at the G7 summit in Quebec, with Trump calling Trudeau “dishonest” and “weak”. But this did not stop the Land of Maple Leaf. Canada's retaliatory tariffs took effect in June 2018 and mirrored the rates imposed by the US.

A spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada reportedly confirmed to Reuters that “Canadian trade officials are reviewing the details of the U.S. tariff proposals, and we remain committed to defending our trade rights under the terms of the USMCA and other international agreements.” In addition to legal recourse at the WTO, Canada will likely explore reciprocal measures, including counter-tariffs on American goods as it did in 2018.

China’s Retaliation

China has been at the centre of trade disputes since Trump’s first term. Over the past several years, Beijing has repeatedly condemned US tariffs as “unjustified” and “disruptive”. In response, it had earlier imposed its own duties on American goods ranging from soybeans to automobiles.

 In recent statements covered by Reuters, China’s Ministry of Commerce repeated that the new tariffs “lack any legitimate basis” under international trade law. Chinese press briefings have consistently stressed that any further American tariffs would lead to “immediate and proportionate retaliatory measures.” The South China Morning Post has reported that China is currently reviewing the list of US tariff targets, which will likely include critical American exports such as aircrafts and high-tech hardware.

Chinese authorities have also made it known that they intend to file a formal complaint with the WTO if the America moves forward with new tariff policies as they would “violate global trade norms.” A Reuters report said that “Chinese officials are prepared to defend their interests both diplomatically and through legal channels.”

Given America's dependency on China’s manufacturing sector, the country appears to be well aware that any additional duties on Chinese goods will worsen supply chain disruptions and increase operating costs for companies that are already suffering. Even within the United States, the prospect of renewed tariffs concerns manufacturers and importers.

In a statement to Reuters, Lutnick warned that even temporary tariffs “could disrupt supply chains and add to the cost burden on US businesses, especially those reliant on imported components.”

Avantika Mehta is a senior associate editor based in New Delhi

This article is a part of 카지노's April 1, 2025 issue 'World At Reset', which explores the ongoing changes in the global geopolitical order. It appeared in print as 'The Tariff Tango'.