Synonymous With War: Sudan's Brutal Present

Sudan, once Africa’s largest country and home to the world’s largest concentration of pyramids, has become synonymous with war and humanitarian crises. The nation, which lost nearly half its territory with South Sudan’s secession in 2011, has been plagued by internal conflict. Its rich history and cultural treasures, including its pyramids and the confluence of the two Niles, remain overshadowed by persistent violence. 

The latest chapter in Sudan’s troubled history began in April 2023―a civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This power struggle has reignited longstanding tensions, decimated the country’s infrastructure and created one of the world’s most acute humanitarian crises. 

Origins Of The Current Conflict 

The RSF, a paramilitary force rooted in the infamous Janjaweed militia responsible for atrocities in Darfur during the early 2000s, has long been a source of instability. The RSF’s leader, Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo, challenges the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, for control of Sudan. Though initially allies in Sudan’s transitional government following the fall of long-term dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, their rivalry has escalated into a full-scale war. 

The conflict has led to devastating consequences. Over 15,000 people have been killed, and more than eight million are internally displaced. Around two million Sudanese refugees have fled to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan, all of which face crises of their own. This displacement has created the world’s largest internal refugee crisis, yet global attention remains focused on other conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia which have larger geopolitical overtones. 

A History Of Strife 

Sudan gained independence in 1956, transitioning from an Anglo-Egyptian condominium to a sovereign state. However, from the outset, the country faced deep internal divisions. The predominantly Arab Muslim north, richer and politically dominant, clashed with the Christian-and animist-majority South, which was less developed. These divisions fuelled two brutal civil wars. 

The second civil war, which lasted from 1983 to 2005, caused immense suffering, with nearly two million deaths and widespread famine. It eventually led to the 2011 secession of South Sudan, forming a new nation, but leaving unresolved tensions in Sudan’s remaining territory. 

The Darfur region, in particular, became a flashpoint for violence. The Janjaweed militias, encouraged by the Bashir government, carried out campaigns of ethnic cleansing and genocide, leaving a legacy of resentment and destruction. The RSF, as a successor to the Janjaweed, has inherited and expanded this destructive legacy. 

Breakdown Of The Democratic Transition 

Following Bashir’s eviction in 2019, Sudan briefly embarked on a democratic transition. A civilian-led government under Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok was established, earning praise from international donors. The transitional government managed to lift some sanctions and worked toward stabilising the economy. However, the military’s discomfort with Hamdok’s growing success led to another coup in 2021, ending hopes for sustained civilian rule. Sudan has mainly been ruled by the military, which was the arbiter of the economy. The Hamdok interregnum was encouraged to diminish the role of the military to an extent that the military seized power again. 

The current conflict erupted when negotiations over integrating the RSF into the SAF broke down. The RSF demanded equal rank and authority within the military, a proposal the SAF rejected. Both factions have since engaged in a bloody struggle for dominance, with Khartoum, the capital, becoming a battlefield. 

Regional And International Dimensions 

The war has drawn in regional and global powers, each pursuing its own agenda. Egypt supports the SAF to counter Ethiopia, with whom it disputes control of the flow of Nile waters due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The RSF, in contrast, has links to Eritrea and is believed to have financial backing from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), facilitated by the RSF’s control over lucrative gold mines. 

The RSF has reportedly deployed militia troops to Yemen in support of UAE interests, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. Meanwhile, Iran is rumoured to be supplying drones to the SAF, and Turkey has also shown interest in Sudan’s strategic position. 

Efforts for mediation by regional bodies like the African Union (AU), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Arab League have largely failed. In 2021, the AU suspended Sudan’s membership, but this has had little impact. The UN and the International Criminal Courts have also struggled to address the crisis, as both sides show little interest in peace. 

Humanitarian Catastrophe 

Sudan’s civil war has created a dire humanitarian crisis. The World Food Programme, which runs one of its largest operations in Sudan, has faced repeated disruptions. Roads, hospitals and distribution centres have been looted or destroyed, leaving millions without access to basic necessities. 

The situation in Darfur is particularly grim, with mass atrocities and ethnic cleansing being reported. In June 2023, the governor of West Darfur was assassinated after seeking international mediation to protect civilians. Entire villages have been destroyed, with hundreds killed in a single day. The UN has described the situation as “spiralling out of control”, but even this assessment understates the scale of the crisis. 

Civil wars often result in significant indirect deaths beyond those directly caused by violence. Analysts estimate that for every direct death in such conflicts, there are approximately 2.3 related deaths due to secondary effects. Based on the estimated 18,916 direct deaths in Sudan’s current conflict, indirect deaths could reach at least 43,000. Some agencies, using higher multipliers, estimate this figure to exceed 100,000. 

Sudan’s healthcare system, already weak and underfunded before the war, struggles with high child mortality and low life expectancy. The ongoing conflict has further disrupted food and medical supplies, exacerbating the famine, especially in Darfur, where 80 per cent of medical facilities are non-functional. Medical personnel face targeted violence, worsening the crisis. 

Children bear the brunt of this humanitarian catastrophe. In a North Darfur camp, an estimated 13 children die daily due to malnutrition. In 2024, 800,000 children faced severe malnutrition, requiring urgent aid to survive. Compounding the crisis is the lack of immunisation and access to clean water and sanitation, which allows diseases to spread rapidly among displaced populations. The situation in Sudan highlights the devastating human toll of war, particularly on the most vulnerable. 

A Nation Surrounded By Instability 

Sudan’s precarious position is worsened by its volatile neighbours, including South Sudan, Libya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Chad and the Central African Republic. Each of these countries faces its own challenges―from civil wars to resource disputes―compounding the region’s instability. Sudan competes with these nations for the title of the worst humanitarian crisis, as international efforts remain insufficient. 

Missed Opportunities For Peace 

Numerous attempts at negotiation have failed. Talks brokered by the US and Saudi Arabia collapsed in May 2023, with the SAF withdrawing and later expelling the UN envoy. Renewed negotiations in late 2023 under the Saudi leadership were adjourned without progress, particularly on humanitarian access. 

The SAF has resisted efforts to resume discussions facilitated by IGAD, a regional bloc, further stalling the peace process. Both sides have accused each other of ethnic cleansing and war crimes, ensuring that mistrust remains a significant barrier to resolution. 

Dark Future 

As 2024 ends, Sudan’s future looks bleak. The RSF and SAF show no signs of laying down arms, and regional and international actors continue to fuel the conflict for their own interests. With the war centred in Khartoum and spreading across the country, particularly in Darfur, the prospect of peace remains distant. There are indications of the SAF and the RSF discussing zones of domination, which may further divide the country. If the SAF returns to Khartoum by ceding control of Darfur and mining areas to the RSF, the battles will only shift to undemarcated areas in Sudan. 

Sudan’s internal contradictions―its inability to reconcile the urban elite with rural populations, its regional divisions and the persistent interference of external powers―mirror the challenges faced by many conflict-ridden nations. Until the deep-seated issues are addressed, Sudan is likely to remain a battlefield, its people enduring unimaginable suffering. 

(Views expressed are personal) 

(Gurjit Singh is former ambassador to Ethiopia and the African Union)